FOX44 - Burlington / Plattsburgh News, Weather & Sports10.14.11 My Snow Prediction Is In!

10.14.11 My Snow Prediction Is In!

• I believe it's time to whip out the forecasts for this winter!  I know it may seem early, with some of the leaves on the trees still green, but let me put it to you this way.

Last year on October 15th, our ski resorts had an early blessing:  Snow!  I remember the day well; it rained in the lower elevations with very chilly rain drops falling.  However climbing into the higher elevations that liquid precipitation changed to the frozen type and it added up quickly! 

So one year ago we had our first snow of the year (in many places):

The following pictures are from Killington Vermont a year ago.  They are courtesy of Fox 44's Matt Austin's story on the first snow of the year.

With foliage still left on the trees, white snow covered the rest of any colors left in the mountains of Vermont.  The snow added up quickly, as I recall to probably a foot in some of the mountain peaks.  What a treat for those skiers and winter resort managers!

Alright so let's get down to the business of this blog, which is telling YOU how much snow to expect this year!

Prior to each winter the National Weather Service challenges its meteorologists and fellow broadcast meteorologists to a friendly winter challenge.  The prize is usually a dessert for the entire herd of weather geeks participates (Yes I am a weather geek).

Okay, so with cupcakes and chocolate cream pie on the line, here are the 2011-2012 winter forecast categories:

• How much snow Burlington will get
• How many days it will snow in Burlington
• The greatest snow depth in Burlington
• The last date it snows in Burlington (springtime)
• The coldest temperature that Saranac Lake, NY will reach
• When Joe's Pond will "ice out"

The top four categories involving Burlington are verified at the Burlington International Airport in South Burlington.  The Saranac Lake observation is recorded at the Adirondack Regional Airport in Lake Clear.  And Joe's Pond is near Danville, Vermont where people guess when a brick will fall through the ice after winter.

Coming off a record year last year, we had the third-highest snow total in Burlington at more than 120".  Burlington had its 3rd-largest snow storm in March dumping 25.8" in a two-day period.  The way the weather has been lately, I catered my forecast to a wet and mild winter for the regional forecast.

So finally...........with all this anticipation on what to expect this winter.............here's what I've got in store (in my mind really) for this winter:

• Burlington, VT snow: 107"
• Snow days in Burlington: 66
• Greatest snow depth this winter: 40"
• Last time it snows in BTV: April 1, 2012
• Coldest Saranac Lake, NY temp: -23 F
• Joe's Pond Ice Out: 04/23/2012 @ Noon

Compared to fellow meteorologist Kerrin Jeromin, these numbers are pretty similar.  Kerrin's forecast includes 105" of snow this year, 25" of greatest snow depth, and 60 snow days at BTV.  I'll let you know the results in the spring, and I'll be honest with the numbers, promising not to skew them in my favor!

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