FOX44 - Burlington / Plattsburgh News, Weather & Sports11.06.11 Near Record Warmth Expected Wednesday

11.06.11 Near Record Warmth Expected Wednesday

Warm Wednesdays, Frigid Fridays, it's what the forecast is going to be like this week.

Coming off another month with above-average temperatures, and 9 out of 10 months with above-average temperatures, we're on schedule for another warm day. That day will come on Wednesday.

Below are the current record high temperatures for Wednesday, November 9.  Next to them is the forecast high.

Town             Record        Forecast

Burlington         67               63

Montpelier         69              61

Rutland             72               61

St. Johnsbury   68               59

Massena, NY    70               65

Lebanon, NH    67              62

Alright, so maybe we won't break any records, but it will come close in some cities like Burlington, Massena, and Lebanon.

Here's the set up for Wednesday.

This is the forecast for 7 a.m. local time Wednesday.  This is a classic set up for some warmth for our area.  The red warm front will lift to our north and allow for a southerly wind to develop, and usher in some warmer temperatures.

One of the ways I forecast high temperatures is the 850 rule.  I look at the temperatures at 850 millibars and convert it to the surface.  Long story short, I basically add 8-14 degrees Celsius onto the 850 temperature, and that will be my high temperature for the day.  If it's cloudy, or mid-winter, I may add close to 8-10 C.  If it's summer/sunny/partly cloudy, I'll add 12-15 C.

I annotated a cold front and warm front on the map.  Wherever the lines are tightly packed, you can determine a frontal boundary is there.  Where I drew the blue line, that's where I believe the cold front will be at 7 p.m. Wednesday.  The warm front will have lifted well to our north, seen by the close horizontal lines through Canada.  So an 850 mb temperature of around 6 C would probably equate to about 18 C at the surface, or 64 degrees.  That's if enough warm air mixes down.  We'll see!