FOX44 - Burlington / Plattsburgh News, Weather & Sports01.10.12 Latest on Thursday's Snow Potential

01.10.12 Latest on Thursday's Snow Potential

Good Tuesday! Alright let's start off with this picture this morning.  I love it.  If I hadn't looked at the weather in, let's say a few weeks, and came back to look at this; I'd be scared.

Courtesy: HPC/NOAA

All those storms coming toward us?!  Poor Northeast.....although some people would get very, very excited (snowmobilers).

Alright, I want you to notice a couple things in this image.  The position of the right-most two "L's"  Those are forecast for Thursday morning and afternoon.  The "L" surrounded by purple dots is for Thursday morning, 7 o'clock.  The blue-surrounded "L" is Thursday night at 7 o'clock.  The fact that the purples and blues are pretty close to each other is a good thing.  That means there is good agreement model-to-model that the storm will be positioned where the projection is.  There are discrepancies still as to how far west or east the low center will track, which will ultimately destine how much snow we get. 

Also the two strings of "L's" (low pressure center) to the west will be kind-of joining forces with the coastal storm.  This could draw in warmer air, but it could also help us get a reinforcing shot of snow again Friday as the storms rotate around each other.

Here's what the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) has forecast for Thursday:

Courtesy: HPC/NOAA

The blue line is a 10% chance of getting 4 inches of snow or more.  The green line is a 40% chance of 4"+.  I like to use these as a guide for my maximums.  I typically agree with the blue line area as my max 4" forecast line, and use the green line as a 3-6 inch range.  However that is a rough estimate that needs a backup!

I love to look at ensembles.  It is a combination of several weather models into one average forecast.  That way I am getting many opinions rather than just one from weather models.

Courtesy: SPC/NOAA

This is the ensemble forecast for 10 a.m. Thursday.  The blue areas estimate where snow will be falling, the green areas where rain will fall, and the red area estimates a mix.  The thick red line is the forecast 32 degree line. 

Courtesy: SPC/NOAA

This is another product that spits out the same image.  This is the same timeframe of 10 a.m. Thursday.  All of northern New England is sitting on the cool side of the storm (according to this ensemble forecast).  The black contour lines are 6 hour accumulated precipitation (liquid).

Courtesy: SPC/NOAA

The ensembles are picking up on between a quarter to a half an inch of liquid for our area.  This is the percentage chance that the area will get 0.25"+/12 hours, ending at 7 p.m. Thursday. 

Here's the chance of 0.50" or more in 12 hours.

Some areas (on the southeastern slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks) may get close to 0.75" of liquid precipitation, but I think that's all that will get squeezed out.

The forecast is looking favorable for more snow than wintry mix Thursday.  Of course, this is subject to change if the low pressure center takes a sharper right-turn out to sea Thursday.  In that case less snow would fall.  However early estimates show a widespread 3-6" of snow likely (based on the current forecast), with totals subject to change in the next 24 hours.

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