FOX44 - Burlington / Plattsburgh News, Weather & Sports1.25.12 What To Expect- Next System

1.25.12 What To Expect- Next System

Sadly for snow lovers (and meteorologists, alike), our next storm system is once again going to be a messy mix of precipitation types. It's more difficult to forecast and WAY less fun to drive through ice than snow in my opinion.

Here's what my latest thinking is, as of around 10pm on Wednesday night (make sure to check back with our full forecast page incase something changes by tomorrow!).

Clouds move in throughout Thursday day time hours, followed by light snow after 8pm Thursday night. Snow or perhaps some sleet should be the sole precip type through about midnight, but with warmer air moving in from the south, we will see a turnover to some freezing rain and rain overnight. The more mild air will work in at a slope from to north, sloping from the surface in southern New England to the higher layers of the atmosphere farther north, over our region. This inversion (warmer temp at higher atmosphere) is the prime reason for mixed precip type.

South                                                                                                             North

As the warmer air moves in from the south, southern areas of VT and NH are most likely to see just plain rain, meanwhile the farther north you head you will gradually find more snow. That said, it's all about where the surface temperature is. Despite warming from the south, often times (at certainly the case recently) cold air gets trapped at the earth's surface in areas that the warm surface air has a "hard time getting to". Terrain can block the flow of warm air at the surface, creating cold pools. This often happens for areas east of the Green Mountains as the mountains act to block that warm flow. With colder air trapped at the surface for those areas, the warm air is still able to move in at the higher atmosphere, making eastern VT and the Upper Valley particularly susceptible to freezing rain or sleet. I believe this to be the case again for Thursday night to Friday morning.

Here is what I expect for snow totals, but that said, the snow will probably only last for some areas in extreme  northeast VT where I expect mainly snow...elsewhere, the turnover to rain will melt away some/all of the snow that does fall... (again, this might change with tomorrow forecast models, so be sure to check back with our forecast page)