FOX44 - Burlington / Plattsburgh News, Weather & Sports02.06.12 Warm Streak Ended, To Turn Cooler?

02.06.12 Warm Streak Ended, To Turn Cooler?

I love statistics.  I have liked numbers since I was in fourth grade.  That's the earliest I can remember liking math and exceeding in it.  On the other hand I've never been that great in history, cultural literacy, etc.  Anyway, Superbowl Sunday ended a streak that had been going on for 13 consecutive days in Burlington, Vermont:

I looked into just how mild it has been as of late in Burlington.  I took the high and low temperature from each day and took the average.  That is the average temperature for that day.  Then I looked at typical 'average temperatures' this time of year and found this:

January 13-26, 2012: The average temperature in Burlington is 18 degrees.

January 27-February 4, 2012: The average temperature is 19 degrees.

Then I compared what each day actually hit:

23rd: 36°

24th: 41°

25th: 31°

26th: 27°

27th: 35.5°

28th: 36.5°

29th: 32.5°

30th: 27°

31st: 27°

1st: 40°

2nd: 26°

3rd: 23.5°

4th: 20.5°

5th: 18.5°

Sunday, February 5th the average temperature was 18.5 degrees, compared to the 20 degrees that is typical for that date.  It was the first day in 13 BELOW average!

Even with that short hiccup Sunday, our weather has turned mild once again Monday.

These numbers are forecast for Monday, February 6. Projected highs on the left versus the differential from the norm on the right:

The large-scale and long-term weather pattern is expected to change in the coming week or two.  As of Monday here's what it looked like:

Courtesy: RAP Weather

The big circle on the left-hand-side is a cut-off low pressure at 250 millibars (or roughly 30,000 feet above ground level).  The jet stream pattern showed a jet streak well north of our area.  The colors of pink and coral show the axis of the strongest winds.  The steering flow was well north of our area, allowing for more warmth to penetrate.

Now compare that to what is projected for Friday, February 10:

Courtesy: Penn State University Meteorology

This pattern paints a different picture. The big 'U' shape across the eastern continental United States is favorable for cold air to pour down from Canada.  This should translate into cooler-than-average temperatures and the chance for some snow.  However farther into the weekend and the following week, the 'U' shape moves east and allows for some modifying air and rising temperatures once again.

-Meteorologist Steve Glazier

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